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Il y a 19 heures, Patrick a dit :

...De guerre hybride contre les baltes, tu veux dire? :wacko:

Ben disons que si on suit les narratifs russes qui font de l'Occident une société de "tapettes dégénérées" prosélytes, que tu suis un peu ce que les extrêmes (à ma connaissance surtout à droite) en France reprochent au CNC, on a potentiellement un truc que leur propagande peut exploiter. - notez que c'est toujours de la dérision de ma part -

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https://www.eurotopics.net/fr/349183/estonie-un-test-de-langue-pour-les-conscrits

La semaine dernière, le Parlement estonien a décidé de modifier sa loi sur le service militaire, faisant du niveau linguistique B1 un prérequis pour pouvoir être appelé sous les drapeaux.

Dans Õhtuleht (27 novembre 2025), le réserviste Martti Kallas dit tout le mal qu'il pense de cette décision :

« Offrir la possibilité aux citoyens de se soustraire à cette obligation ne fait qu'aggraver un problème qui aurait pu être idéalement résolu par la participation à huit ou onze mois de service militaire. Cette nouvelle loi implique que ceux qui maîtrisent l'estonien – quelle que soit leur langue maternelle – doivent accomplir leur devoir, tandis que les 'Nié panimayou' [ceux qui ne comprennent pas la langue] pourront se la couler douce. C'est inacceptable. Il suffira à ceux qui n'ont pas une maîtrise suffisante de l'estonien de ne pas suivre de cours de langue pour avoir la garantie de ne pas assurer la défense de leur pays pendant un an. »

 

 

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https://www.politico.eu/article/baltic-russia-sanctions-package-eu-raffaele-fitto-moscow-war-economy/

"Baltic nations suffering from Russia sanctions win EU relief

The Commission wants to revive areas that have seen a halt in tourism and foreign investment after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

BRUSSELS — The European Commission will provide a financial band-aid next year to Baltic nations suffering collateral economic damage from EU sanctions against Russia.

The region is being hit particularly hard because of falls in tourism and investment, along with the collapse of cross-border trade.

Regions Commissioner Raffaele Fitto is leading the plan, which aims to kickstart the economies of Finland and its Baltic neighbors, according to diplomats and Commission officials who were granted anonymity to speak freely.

The intended recipients are also heading to Brussels with a lengthy wish list, hoping Fitto's plan will reignite their economies. Their concerns will take center stage during a summit of leaders from Eastern European countries in Helsinki on Dec. 16.

“We want to have special attention to our region — the eastern flank, including Lithuania — because we see the negative impact coming from the geopolitical situation,” Lithuania’s Europe minister, Sigitas Mitkus, said in an interview with POLITICO earlier this month. “Sometimes it's difficult to convince [investors] that … we have all the facilities in place.”

But skeptics warn that any immediate financial support Fitto can provide will be meager, given the scale of the challenge and with the bloc’s seven-year budget running low.

The EU has agreed 19 sanction packages against Moscow in a bid to cripple the Russian war economy, which has bankrolled the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine since February 2022.

In doing so, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have all taken a hit. While the threat of a Kremlin invasion has deterred tourists and investors, the sanctions have choked off cross-border trade with Russia, and everything has been made worse by skyrocketing inflation after the pandemic. Dwindling housing prices have also made it more difficult for businesses to provide collateral to secure loans from banks.

“People who had cross-border connections with some economic consequences have lost them,” Jürgen Ligi, Estonia’s finance minister, told POLITICO.

A native of Tartu on Estonia’s eastern flank, Ligi has witnessed these problems first-hand as he owns a house only four kilometers from the Russian border.

Estonia’s economy has suffered the most from the war [which caused] problems with investments and jobs,” Ligi added.

According to the Commission’s latest forecast, Estonia is expected to grow by only 0.6 percent in 2025 — well below the EU average — even though economic activity is expected to pick up in 2026 and 2027.

In another sign of financial strain, Finland breached the Commission's spending rules in 2025 due to excessive spending and an economic slowdown caused by the war.

"We will be acknowledging the difficult economic situation Finland is facing, including the geopolitical and the closure of the Russian border," EU Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis, said on Tuesday.

Scraping the barrel

But Fitto’s options could be limited until the bloc’s new seven-year budget, known as the multi-annual financial framework (MFF), is in place by 2028.

“My sense is that the communication won’t come with fresh money but with ideas that can be pursued in the next MFF,” said an EU diplomat who was granted anonymity to discuss upcoming legislation.

Mindful of dwindling resources in the EU’s current cash pot, Lithuania’s Mitkus is demanding that Baltic firms get preferential access to the EU’s new funding programs from 2028 — something that is currently lacking in the Commission’s budget proposal from July.

Officials from the frontline states are exploring other options. These include Brussels loosening state aid rules so they can subsidize struggling firms, and getting the European Investment Bank to provide guarantees to companies that want to invest in the region.

While the upcoming strategy will draw attention to these problems, officials privately admit that it's unlikely to mobilize enough cash to solve them immediately.

"It will build the narrative that in the next MFF you can do something for [pressing issues for Eastern regions such as] drones production," said the EU diplomat quoted above. But until 2028, "I don't expect any new money.”"

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https://odessa-journal.com/lithuania-strengthens-protection-of-critical-infrastructure

"Lithuania strengthens protection of critical infrastructure

Lithuania is reinforcing the protection of Vilnius’ critical infrastructure in response to threats linked to Russia’s war against Ukraine, reports LRT.

Vilnius Mayor Valdas Benkunskas signed a cooperation agreement with Viktoras Grabauskas, head of the Public Security Service (VST), to safeguard electricity, water, heating, and other key urban facilities. These sites will receive additional protection from mobile fire units capable of responding to threats both on the ground and from the air.

Benkunskas noted that lessons from the war in Ukraine have shown that critical infrastructure in cities becomes a target for external forces seeking to destabilize civilian life. The agreement sets standards for infrastructure protection, establishes procedures for intelligence cooperation, and provides for regular drills.

To respond to potential threats, the city plans to acquire modified vehicles equipped with multifunctional tools, including radar systems and kinetic means for neutralizing drones. The estimated cost of these acquisitions is around €1 million. Military recommendations are also expected regarding additional physical security measures such as fences and surveillance cameras.

VST Commander Viktoras Grabauskas announced that Vilnius will host three mobile fire units and one specialized vehicle for threat detection and electronic warfare. He emphasized the need for safe kinetic tools, including heavy-caliber machine guns with programmable ammunition, which could be used in peacetime.

While VST is responsible for protecting critical infrastructure nationwide, its functions in Vilnius will expand under the new agreement. Preliminary assessments indicate that the service has sufficient personnel to fulfill these tasks.

Earlier in July, Lithuania’s Ministry of Interior and the Vilnius municipal government agreed on joint protection of infrastructure against drones. Recently, airport operations have been repeatedly disrupted by weather balloons from Belarus, further motivating the strengthening of security measures and the discussion of hybrid threat responses at both national and international levels"

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  • 2 weeks later...

https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2025-12-09/belarusian-balloons-prompt-emergency-situation-lithuania (9 décembre 2025)

L'instauration de la situation d'urgence (qui n'est pas équivalent à l'état d'urgence) marque la dernière mesure prise par les autorités lituaniennes dans le cadre de leurs efforts pour contrer les ballons biélorusses. Le blocus des postes-frontières avec la Biélorussie, imposé en octobre et maintenu pendant trois semaines à titre de mesure de rétorsion, n'a pas permis d'obtenir le résultat escompté. En réponse, les autorités de Minsk ont interdit aux camions lituaniens se trouvant en Biélorussie de rentrer chez eux. Vilnius affirme que la Biélorussie retient environ 280 véhicules, même si les postes-frontières lituano-biélorusses de Šalčininkai et Medininkai ont été rouverts le 20 octobre.

Les autorités de Minsk ont conditionné la résolution de la question à la volonté de Vilnius d'engager des discussions plus larges sur la normalisation des relations bilatérales. Le 9 décembre, Loukachenko a exigé que la Lituanie « compense les pertes » subies par la Biélorussie à la suite des sanctions imposées après 2020. Il a également accusé le gouvernement lituanien de soutenir la communauté biélorusse en exil, y compris les formations paramilitaires volontaires. Le ministre biélorusse des Affaires étrangères, Maksim Ryzhenkov, s'est également exprimé à plusieurs reprises sur un ton agressif, suggérant que Vilnius aggrave le conflit uniquement pour obtenir « des fonds supplémentaires pour la protection des frontières » de la part de Bruxelles.

La saisie de camions lituaniens, associée à des tentatives infructueuses pour les récupérer par le biais de négociations avec les autorités biélorusses, a déclenché des protestations de la part des entreprises de transport lituaniennes, qui menacent désormais le gouvernement de bloquer les routes. La première manifestation est prévue pour le 10 décembre. Des tensions au sein de la coalition au pouvoir sont également apparues, révélant que le gouvernement manque d'une stratégie cohérente à l'égard de Minsk, qui cible la frontière orientale de l'UE depuis 2021.

Modifié par Wallaby
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https://tvpworld.com/90520427/baltic-leaders-warn-of-rising-threats-as-nato-boosts-eastern-flank

"Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia push for stronger NATO presence in Baltic region

The leaders of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia met this week to reaffirm their commitment to regional security and defense cooperation, underscoring the importance of NATO’s Eastern Flank and sustained U.S. military presence in the Baltic region.

I can assure you that the number of American troops in Lithuania will stay the same for another two terms,” Lithuanian Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė said. “Security and cooperation with our key strategic partners will be ensured for a longer period. This is very important so that America understands the situation in the Baltic region and how sensitive our area is.”

Latvian Prime Minister Evika Siliņa highlighted the diplomatic effort underpinning those security assurances. “Our foreign and defense ministers regularly go to Washington to show we care about our security—and the U.S. notices this,” she said. At NATO summits, Baltic leaders consistently call for stronger protection of the Eastern Flank and a reinforced allied presence in the Baltic Sea region.

NATO jets have scrambled several times in response to airspace violations, underscoring the urgency of air defense.

Europe is now working on a “drone wall” to counter aerial threats, with Latvia and Croatia among the leading countries in the initiative. Officials say the project will integrate surveillance and interception systems along vulnerable borders.

The meeting comes as Russia intensifies hybrid pressure across the region, prompting NATO to further strengthen its forward presence. For the Baltic states, unity and sustained U.S. backing remain central to deterrence."

Oui, plus les USA que l'OTAN donc... :rolleyes:

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Il y a 3 heures, Polybe a dit :

https://tvpworld.com/90520427/baltic-leaders-warn-of-rising-threats-as-nato-boosts-eastern-flank

"Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia push for stronger NATO presence in Baltic region

The leaders of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia met this week to reaffirm their commitment to regional security and defense cooperation, underscoring the importance of NATO’s Eastern Flank and sustained U.S. military presence in the Baltic region.

I can assure you that the number of American troops in Lithuania will stay the same for another two terms,” Lithuanian Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė said. “Security and cooperation with our key strategic partners will be ensured for a longer period. This is very important so that America understands the situation in the Baltic region and how sensitive our area is.”

Latvian Prime Minister Evika Siliņa highlighted the diplomatic effort underpinning those security assurances. “Our foreign and defense ministers regularly go to Washington to show we care about our security—and the U.S. notices this,” she said. At NATO summits, Baltic leaders consistently call for stronger protection of the Eastern Flank and a reinforced allied presence in the Baltic Sea region.

NATO jets have scrambled several times in response to airspace violations, underscoring the urgency of air defense.

Europe is now working on a “drone wall” to counter aerial threats, with Latvia and Croatia among the leading countries in the initiative. Officials say the project will integrate surveillance and interception systems along vulnerable borders.

The meeting comes as Russia intensifies hybrid pressure across the region, prompting NATO to further strengthen its forward presence. For the Baltic states, unity and sustained U.S. backing remain central to deterrence."

Oui, plus les USA que l'OTAN donc... :rolleyes:

Ils perdent pas le nord, c'est une preuve d'intelligence.

Et encore une preuve qu'on a meilleur compte à agir de notre côté auprès de ceux qui voudront bien être nos alliés, au sein de l'OTAN ou à l'extérieur de celle-ci, plutôt qu'attendre après des décisions collégiales prises par des gratte-papiers qui ne contrôlent plus rien.

Modifié par Patrick
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il y a 37 minutes, Patrick a dit :

Ils perdent pas le nord, c'est une preuve d'intelligence.

Et encore une preuve qu'on a meilleur compte à agir de notre côté auprès de ceux qui voudront bien être nos alliés, au sein de l'OTAN ou à l'extérieur de celle-ci, plutôt qu'attendre après des décisions collégiales prises par des gratte-papiers qui ne contrôlent plus rien.

...j'y vois plus une preuve de "pas le choix". ^^

Après je poste pas tout, mais ils se tournent quotidiennement vers l'Europe, et vice-versa. Pour le coup je sens une tendance à vouloir un équilibre du moment que ça n'est pas avec la Russie et ses proxies.

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https://www.eurotopics.net/fr/349940/lituanie-une-reforme-controversee-de-l-audiovisuel-public (12 décembre 2025)

En Lituanie, un projet de loi portant sur la radio-télévision publique LRT suscite des craintes pour la liberté d'expression. Porté par le parti d'extrême droite Nemuno Aušra, membre de la coalition gouvernementale, il vise à faciliter la procédure de limogeage de la direction générale de LRT. Pour ses détracteurs, l'initiative risque d'affaiblir l'indépendance rédactionnelle du groupe public et de favoriser une prise de contrôle politique.

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il y a 18 minutes, Wallaby a dit :

https://www.eurotopics.net/fr/349940/lituanie-une-reforme-controversee-de-l-audiovisuel-public (12 décembre 2025)

En Lituanie, un projet de loi portant sur la radio-télévision publique LRT suscite des craintes pour la liberté d'expression. Porté par le parti d'extrême droite Nemuno Aušra, membre de la coalition gouvernementale, il vise à faciliter la procédure de limogeage de la direction générale de LRT. Pour ses détracteurs, l'initiative risque d'affaiblir l'indépendance rédactionnelle du groupe public et de favoriser une prise de contrôle politique.

Typiquement les sujets où ils se font retoqués par l'UE assez régulièrement ces derniers mois.

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Il y a 3 heures, Polybe a dit :

...j'y vois plus une preuve de "pas le choix". ^^

Ouais.

Mais c'est marrant tous ces pays qui choisissent la France quand ils n'ont "plus le choix" quand même.

...Un peu comme si on était un plan de secours qui est aussi l'un des meilleurs ou le meilleur dans un paquet de domaines, mais que pour des raisons inexplicables (:rolleyes:) il serait malencontreux de devenir nos clients, et même pire, nos partenaires.

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il y a 1 minute, Patrick a dit :

Ouais.

Mais c'est marrant tous ces pays qui choisissent la France quand ils n'ont "plus le choix" quand même.

...Un peu comme si on était un plan de secours qui est aussi l'un des meilleurs ou le meilleur dans un paquet de domaines, mais que pour des raisons inexplicables (:rolleyes:) il serait malencontreux de devenir nos clients, et même pire, nos partenaires.

...disons qu'une fois au plan B, France baise ouais ! :biggrin:

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  • 3 weeks later...

https://www.reuters.com/world/finland-suspects-ship-causing-undersea-cable-damage-president-says-2025-12-31/

"Finland seizes ship sailing from Russia after suspected cable sabotage in Baltic Sea

HELSINKI, Dec 31 (Reuters) - Finnish police on Wednesday seized a ship sailing from Russia on suspicion of sabotaging an undersea telecoms cable running from Helsinki to Estonia across the Gulf of Finland, an area hit by a string of similar incidents in recent years.

The seized cargo vessel "Fitburg" was en route from the Russian port of St Petersburg to Israel at the time of the incident, Finland's Border Guard authority told a press conference in Helsinki.

"At the moment we suspect aggravated disruption of telecommunications and also aggravated sabotage and attempted aggravated sabotage," Helsinki Chief of Police Jari Liukku told reporters.

Concern is growing in Europe at what officials see as an increase in hybrid threats from Russia since it launched its war in Ukraine, which Moscow denies.

Earlier this month, NATO's top military commander said the alliance must be ready to respond to these type of threats to defend its territory.

Hybrid threats refer to both military and non-military tactics designed to undermine an adversary's security. They can include cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, sabotage of key infrastructure and use of drones or irregular armed groups.

STATES ON HIGH ALERT IN BALTIC SEA SINCE UKRAINE CONFLICT

The Fitburg's 14 crew members were from Russia, Georgia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, and were all held by Finnish police, investigators said. The ship sailed under the flag of St Vincent and Grenadines.

According to LSEG data, the owner of the vessel is Fitburg Shipping Company Ltd and the manager is Albros Shipping and Trading Ltd. Reuters was not able to reach either of those companies via telephone.

Eight NATO states border the Baltic Sea, which also borders Russia. They have been on high alert after a string of outages of power cables, telecoms links and gas pipelines that run along the relatively shallow seabed since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

NATO has boosted its presence in the Baltic with frigates, aircraft and naval drones in recent years.

"We remain in contact with the Finnish authorities, through exchange of information, via the NATO shipping centre located at our Allied Maritime Command in Northwood, UK," an official at the military alliance said.

The Fitburg was dragging its anchor in the sea, and was directed to Finnish territorial waters, the police and Finland's Border Guard said. The cable belongs to Finnish telecoms group Elisa.

'HOPEFULLY NOT DELIBERATE' SAYS ESTONIAN PRESIDENT

Estonia's justice ministry said a second telecoms cable connecting the country to Finland had also suffered an outage on Wednesday. It was not immediately clear if the cable, belonging to Sweden's Arelion, was running parallel to Elisa's.

An Arelion spokesperson confirmed that the company had suffered an outage.

"I'm concerned about the reported damage... Hopefully it was not a deliberate act, but the investigation will clarify," Estonia's President Alar Karis said on X.

The European Commission was closely monitoring the incident, EU technology commissioner Henna Virkkunen wrote on X.

Finland in December 2024 boarded the Russian-linked oil tanker Eagle S which investigators said had damaged a power cable and several telecoms links in the Baltic Sea by dragging its anchor.

A Finnish court in October dismissed a criminal case against the Eagle S captain and other crew members, ruling prosecutors failed to prove intent and that any alleged negligence must be pursued by the ship's flag state or the crew's home countries."

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"Estonia intel chief says Russia not planning attack on a Baltic country 'at this time'

'So far, it's still clear that Russia respects NATO and is currently trying to avoid any open conflict,' says Kaupo Rosin

Estonia’s foreign intelligence chief has said there is currently no indication that Russia intends to attack any of the Baltic states or NATO “more broadly.”

In an interview with Estonia’s public broadcaster ERR on Monday, Foreign Intelligence Service Director General Kaupo Rosin said: “What we're still seeing today is that Russia currently has no intention of attacking any of the Baltic states or NATO more broadly.”

He said Estonia’s task was to ensure the situation “remains that way,” noting that Russia has adjusted its behavior following Western and NATO responses to recent incidents in the region.

“So far, it's still clear that Russia respects NATO and is currently trying to avoid any open conflict,” Rosin said.

He pointed to a series of incidents over the past year, including damage to undersea cables, drone incursions into NATO airspace and aircraft violations.

According to Rosin, Russia’s reaction to NATO’s responses suggests a desire to prevent escalation.

“Following various incidents – starting with the undersea cables some time ago or the different drone incursions into NATO airspace or aircraft violations – what we've seen is that, in response to reactions from the West or NATO, Russia has taken various measures to prevent such incidents from happening again in the future,” he said.

The intelligence chief added that drone flight paths over Ukraine had been adjusted to minimize risk, while Russian aircraft over the Baltic Sea were now “very carefully monitoring their flight paths… to avoid triggering incidents.”

Rosin also said there had been no new cable-related incidents since NATO launched its Baltic Sentry mission in the region.

However, he cautioned that risks remained high due to ongoing military activity and the war in Ukraine. “In theory, such events are still possible, but at the moment we don't see any indication that Russia is deliberately trying to escalate.”

Addressing concerns about Russia’s “shadow fleet” of oil tankers, Rosin said Moscow’s main interest was preserving freedom of movement in the Baltic Sea to protect vital oil revenues.

He noted that Western actions, including a French operation to board a tanker, showed the fleet was “not entirely untouchable.”

Looking ahead, Rosin warned that a peace settlement in Ukraine that did not clearly amount to a Russian defeat could increase risks for the region.

"It likely increases the risks for us, especially if Russia grows more confident and emboldened. That's certainly a point of concern. Even if some kind of truce, peace deal or frozen conflict emerges — if it gets that far — Russia would still need to maintain a significant military presence against Ukraine, which would continue to tie up its resources," he said."

 

Ce post est celui au-dessus montre que l'on est malgré tout entre gens raisonnables, et qu'un dialogue existe. Je pense que cela montre aussi qu'il y un monde entre les intentions politiques et la déclinaison en ordres militaires. Comme je le supposais, certaines initiatives de pilotes russes (ou erreurs, je ne dis pas) on du amener à de sévères rappel à l'ordre (ce que suggérait Fighter Bomber).

Dommage pour l'abscence d'incidents sur les cables par contre, à un jour près... ^^

Son analyse est hyper interessante, assez pondéré. 

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La Lituanie prépare ses ponts pour les faire sauter en cas d’invasion de la Biélorussie 

Citation

La Lituanie se prépare à faire sauter des ponts à sa frontière avec la Russie et le Bélarus.
Les pays baltes renforcent leurs préparatifs face à d'éventuelles menaces militaires de la Fédération de Russie et du Bélarus. Des structures conçues pour faire sauter des ponts en cas de conflit ont notamment été installées à la frontière lituanienne avec ces pays. (…) Selon le plan, les ponts sont équipés de « dispositifs de sécurisation des explosifs ». « Le choix des ponts et des routes se fait en fonction de la présence d'obstacles naturels et de leur importance stratégique pour le système de défense lituanien », ont déclaré des responsables militaires à la presse.(…)
Lithuania Prepares to Blow Up Bridges on the Border with Russia and Belarus  The Baltic countries are strengthening their preparations for possible military threats from the Russian Federation and Belarus. In particular, structures designed for blowing up bridges in the event of war have already appeared on the border of Lithuania with these countries. (…) According to the plan, the bridges are being equipped with "engineering structures for securing explosives." "Bridges and roads are selected based on the location of natural obstacles and their strategic importance in Lithuania's defense system," military officials told journalists.(…)
https://news.inbox.lv/14zo7a2-lithuania-prepares-to-blow-up-bridges-on-the-border-with-russia-and-belarus-lrt 

J’ai un vague souvenir d’avoir lu que dans les années 80, la France avait quelque chose d’analogue, en cas d’invasion soviétique. Peut être un classique pour un service du Génie bien organisé ?

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Il y a 3 heures, Desty-N a dit :

J’ai un vague souvenir d’avoir lu que dans les années 80, la France avait quelque chose d’analogue, en cas d’invasion soviétique. Peut être un classique pour un service du Génie bien organisé ?

De même en 1983, en cours d'explo à Saint-Cyr, l'instructeur nous avait parlé d'ouvrages d'art en France équipés avec un/des logements fermés pouvant contenir une charge dimensionnée à ces logements. Charges prêtes et stockées par ailleurs.
Vagues souvenirs aussi, je ne me souviens plus s'il en parlait au présent ou au futur.

À l'époque on attendait le déferlement de dizaines de milliers de Txx.

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il y a 47 minutes, SavoirFer a dit :

À l'époque on attendait le déferlement de dizaines de milliers de Txx.

Il me semble que dans ce que j’ avais lu à l’époque, on expliquait que l’objectif était juste de gagner assez de temps pour que l’Elysée puisse décider à tête reposée d’ appuyer ou pas sur LE bouton (nucléaire) On ne se faisait guère d’illusion sur notre capacité à bloquer le déferlement de Txx.:unsure:

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