La Livre a perdu 25% de sa valeur depuis janvier 2001 face à l'Euro

[Jojo67]

Question: combien de temps cela va-t-il être tenable pour Londres de rester en dehors de l'Euro?

De plus les taux d'intérêts de la Banque d'Angleterre sont restés nettement au-dessus de ceux de la BCE ces dernières années (sauf ces dernières semaines), ce qui pénalise le commerce.

http://fxtop.com/fr/historates.php3?C1=GBP&C2=EUR&DD1=01&MM1=01&YYYY1=2001&DD2=31&MM2=12&YYYY2=2008&MA=1

[Jojo67]

On se rapproche de la parité Euro-Livre: http://fxtop.com/fr/historates.php3?C1=GBP&C2=EUR&DD1=01&MM1=01&YYYY1=2001&DD2=31&MM2=12&YYYY2=2008&MA=1

[Invité barbaros pacha]

C'est un peu normal, ils veulent peut être payer leur dette extérieur avec leur livres, là c'est sa serait plutôt bénéfique pour eux....

[g4lly]

Question: combien de temps cela va-t-il être tenable pour Londres de rester en dehors de l'Euro?

De plus les taux d'intérêts de la Banque d'Angleterre sont restés nettement au-dessus de ceux de la BCE ces dernières années (sauf ces dernières semaines), ce qui pénalise le commerce.

Les devaluation "passive" compétitive ces la mode en ce moment ... tout le monde laisse filer sa monnaie pour doper ses exports ... pour le moment les anglais n'ont pas de souci avec ca, au contraire ca les arrange plutot.

Pour les taux d'intérêt ça pénalise pas le commerce ... mais les investissements. Le problème de baisser les taux c'est la gestion de l'inflation ... si on facilite trop le crédit en ayant des taux très bas on injecte mécaniquement des signe monétaire en quantité est on aboutit très vite a de l'inflation. C'est un boulot d'équilibriste d'avoir le taux qui va bien ... qui ne dope pas trop sa monnaie ... qui rend le credit asseze attractif pour de l'invest mais pas trop pour eviter l'inflation. Dans le cas US y a pas de probleme d'inflation officiellement et les probleme economique sont suffisament grave pour decendre les taux tres bas ... mais a se petit jeux on se retrouve vite dans une position japonaise a des taux super bas qui font que sa monnaie devient tellement pas cher quelle sert a du carry trade.

[Perry]

Le problème majeur de l'Angleterre est que les deux pôles majeurs de son économie sont la finance et la spéculation immobilière. Il n'est pas rare pour les Anglais de s'endetter sur plusieurs générations pour acquérir un bien immobilier. Au décès, on transmet la dette aux héritiers. A charge pour eux de garder le bien ou de le mettre en vente pour solder le crédit et éventuellement toucher la soulte. Ces deux secteurs étant moribonds, il était évident que les Anglais allaient souffrir.

Leurs deux porte-avions, sont aux dernières nouvelles reportés aux calendes Grecques.

[Zamorana]

Les ménages anglais sont extrêmement endettés, plus encore que les américains.

[Coriace]

Extrêmement oui ..

Mais ils peuvent grâce à leurs acquis continuer à le cacher encore quelque temps .L'Anglais est fier ,et j'ai vraiment peur qu'ils tombent de haut ,enfin qu'on tombe de haut d'ici peu . Faudrait vraiment qu'ils redeviennent pragmatique.

[Marcus]

Il y a aussi un autre problème qui ne les aide pas : le déclin des champs gaziers anglais.

L'UK est redevenu un importateur de gaz. Les entrées de devises auraient été appréciables en ce moment.

Une politique à courte vue ont gâché cette ressource précieuse au moment où les cours étaient bas.

[Rochambeau]

In defence of sterling

Ever contrarian, we here at FT Alphaville feel it is therefore our intrinsic duty to put forward the case for the UK’s beleaguered currency.

For one, the position of sterling as a global reserve currency must be considered.

According to the IMF, sterling is still the third most popular global currency reserve. The latest figures - available here - show some $199bn in sterling was held in official foreign exchange reserves in the third quarter of 2008, that compares to $136bn worth of yen.

What is more, sterling forms part of the daily valuation basket for special drawing rights at the IMF (alongside the dollar, yen and euro). An SDR was last valued at 1.49633 to the dollar. To compare, in October it was worth 1.546350 to the dollar.

The point being, a sterling crash would be equivalent to Lehman times 10 as far as contagion for global markets go. It cannot just crash and disappear like Lehman - that would be in no-one’s interest.

Already the calls from foreign government officials have begun. French Economy minister Christine Lagarde made a rare plea for currency intervention by the Bank of England on Thursday. The reply from the UK Treasury was actually reassuringly dismissive. As Monument Securities notes (our emphasis):

Within minutes of this comment being released, the UK Treasury replied with a statement, ‘the Bank of England’s policy is to target inflation, not the exchange rate’. Later, an anonymous source close to the G7 (the source’s anonymity perhaps indicating how sensitive this issue has become) was reported to have said that the recent fall in the value of sterling would figure in the G7 ministerial talks due to take place in Rome on 13-14 February. The pound’s depreciation had, apparently, become problematic for at least some member-states of the euro zone. The surprise is that it has taken so long for Continental policymakers to react against the UK’s exercise of its exchange rate freedom. Since sterling’s slide began to gather pace in 2008Q3, the UK authorities have regularly expressed their satisfaction at the pound’s fall. The market has been inclined to interpret this positive official attitude to a weaker exchange rate as an invitation to take the currency even lower.

Historians will see parallels between sterling’s latest depreciation and the devaluation that occurred in 1931-32, which turned out to be a key element in the UK’s defence against deflationary forces at that time. However, the immediate challenges presented by the financial crisis seem, for months past, to have distracted euro zone leaders from giving a careful consideration to history. For a remarkably long time, they have made no comment on sterling’s slide. If they have regarded this phenomenon at all, they have probably taken it as proof of the intrinsic superiority of their own euro currency. That was certainly implicit in Mrs Lagarde’s words, which assumed the Bank of England had been trying, but failing, to support the pound. She seems to have missed the point that the pound’s fall has occurred not through a lack of efficiency on the part of the UK authorities, but from a lack of will. It has not been an objective of UK policy to have a firm currency - far from it. Perhaps the British reputation for sportsmanship is still so firmly-grounded that the UK’s EU partners could not imagine that London would try to steal a march on them through a competitive devaluation. Then again, Mrs Lagarde may have been speaking with a degree of irony.

If it’s true that the Bank of England and the Treasury have actually taken the very bold step of inciting sterling weakness as a measure to fight deflationary forces, they have acted commendably and potentially way ahead of the curve. Sterling’s weakness could turn out to be the UK’s saving grace. Eventually, it will become so undervalued the incentive to buy will also eventually become too big.

As argued here before, it is not as if the UK is the only reserve-currency nation to be facing economic problems.

By acting first on devaluation the UK has created a competitive advantage. As far as the downside goes, there is perhaps some risk of importing inflation. But currently we can stand to import it away.

And while putting off the population from holidaying abroad may be a bitter pill to swallow for some, it will certainly keep the British spending in Britain - another clear winner for the UK economy overall.

Of course, with currency devaluation comes the possible loss of faith in fiscal health. However, as Morgan Stanley’s Graham Secker points out, the UK government enjoys one significant benefit to say currency crisis countries like Russia and Argentina - the vast majority of its debt is denominated in GBP.

This distinction is important as it allows the government much greater flexibility to service its debt, regardless of any currency devaluation.

Another risk of course is capital flight. Secker estimates up to 40 per cent of the UK stock market and 28 per cent of the gilt market being owned by overseas investors. But even on this front he reassures as follows:

First, the UK has its own very large investor community that will still need to match GBP liabilities with GBP assets. Second, while global investors had little requirement to hold the likes of Indonesian or Argentinean equities in previous crises, we believe that demand for solid blue-chip stocks such as BP, GlaxoSmithKline and Vodafone will remain high.

So there you have it, if Brits stay in Britain and buy British, the UK will be fine.

Plus, as Monument Securities reminds, the argument that the UK has nothing left to sell has been significantly overdone.

Many observers will ask why the French Government should be worried by the UK’s gain in competitiveness. After all, they will say, a lower exchange rate will not help the UK much. The UK has hardly any manufacturing industry left and what it has is in high-tech sectors where prices are not relevant to exporting success. That, at least, is the popular view. It is a severe distortion of the truth.

Now note the following handsome list of UK exports (our emphasis):

The UK is among the leading exporters of manufactured goods in the world. Germany and China, of course, are way out in front. Then comes the USA, followed by Japan. But in fifth, sixth and seventh places, in a tight group, are the UK, France and Italy. The manufactured exports of these countries run at slightly over one-half the German rate but each still represents about 5% of the world total. Two sectors where UK exports are relatively price-sensitive are autos and defence goods. In 2007, the UK exported £18.7bn of motor vehicles and a further £5.0bn of auto parts.

Taken together, these exports represented 12% of the UK’s total manufactured exports. In defence goods, the UK was the top global exporter in 2007, according to the UKTI Defence & Security Organisation. Figures from the same source show that, even on a longer view, the UK’s position in this sector was very strong. Cumulative data for the five years to 2007 show the USA as the top exporter, with $63bn, and the UK second with $53bn. Russia exported $33bn of defence goods over this period, France $17bn, and Germany and Israel $9bn each. Some defence products are high-tech but the UK is also strong in small arms production, where sales are price-sensitive.

It is reasonable to suppose that trade in defence goods offers better-than-average prospects for growth. There can be no surprise the French Government has been the first to sound the alarm on sterling’s depreciation. France is the euro zone country with which the UK competes most directly in the auto and defence goods markets. The fact that most of the UK exports of autos carry Japanese brand-names is unlikely to make the situation any more acceptable to the French authorities.

So there you have it, a pure and simple trade war, and if the UK is committed to the fight sterling weakness is a must have.

Source :

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/01/23/51595/in-defence-of-sterling/?source=rss