Guerre civile en Syrie

[g4lly]

L'artillerie turque tirent - ou tireraient c'est selon - sur Azaz - les position kurdes évidement ... -

 

Les SDF syriennes ont menacé les turcs de représailles s'ils ne cessent par leurs bombardements.

[2020]

Serront les fesses.... pourvu  qu ils ne soient pas plus debile qu ils en ont l air !!

[Wallaby]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/saudi-arabian-troops-deployed-to-turkey-a-boost-for-peace-in-syria-or-a-slide-into-even-bloodier-a6871991.html (13 février 2016)

Cet envoi de troupes et d'avions saoudiens en Turquie n'avait pas été annoncé par le ministre de la défense saoudien, le prince Mohamed Bin Salman, lors de la réunion de la coalition pro-américaine à Bruxelles jeudi à laquelle participait également Ashton Carter.

 

[g4lly]

Plus d'infos sur les gardien de la révolution engagé en Syrie ... ce sont des unité qui parlent arabe courament sans accent particulier ce qui permet de les intégrer de maniere transparente au sein des combats avec les loyalistes syriens sans qu'on puissent vraiment faire la différence ... du moins sans que l'ennemi puisse vraiment faire la différence.

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2016/02/the-irgcs-involvement-in-the-battle-for-aleppo.php

Quote

On Feb. 11, the US, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar agreed in Munich to a ceasefire in Syria. But the Russian Foreign Minister announced that his country would not stop its bombing against “terrorists.” (Russia’s definition of “terrorists” includes most rebel organizations, not just Al Nusrah Front, the Islamic State, and other jihadist groups.) Syrian President Bashar Assad vowed to retake the whole country, warning it could “take a long time.” These statements hardly signal good faith.

Assad’s allies, including Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which has a central role in ongoing operations in northern Aleppo, do not appear to be interested in serious negotiations. The Assad-Iran axis believes momentum on the ground is on their side.

On the same day as Geneva III talks started on Feb. 3, the Syrian Arab Army, Syrian National Defense forces and pro-Assad fighters backed by Russian air power launched a major offensive in northern Aleppo. They broke the siege of the predominantly Shiite towns of Nubl and Zahraa and captured the surrounding area, cutting off the opposition’s primary supply route from Turkey. They continue to push the offensive, encircling the rebel-held areas of Aleppo.

Since the operation started on January 31, the IRGC has announced at least 42 fatalities, a significant spike in the death toll. The rate is comparable to October 2015, when Russia began its military intervention and pro-government forces launched a major offensive in southern Aleppo.

Like the October offensive, the IRGC members killed in the past week were from regular ground force units from across Iran. They included several senior officers: three brigadier generals, a colonel, and twolieutenants. Iranian media also reported the presence of officers and operatives from the IRGC’s Qods Force. The unit is not known to publicly report its fatalities.

A senior non-Syrian security official close to Damascus told Reuters that Qods Force Commander Qassem Soleimani was in the area supervising the operation, which is intended to preserve Bashar Assad’s regime. Soleimani helped convince the Kremlin to intervene militarily and deploy its air force, which has given the pro-Assad forces a huge edge. Soleimani oversees all of the Shiite militias active in Syria. Lebanese Hezbollah, the Afghan Shiite Fatemiyoun Brigade, and the Iraqi Shiite Badr Corps have all played significant roles in the recent operations in northern Aleppo.

It is worth noting that at least one dozen of the IRGC’s recent fatalities were from its Khuzestan province unit, which hails from Iran’s Arabic-speaking province. These troops are valued for their language skills, as they can embed and communicate with Arab forces fighting on Assad’s side. These reported fatalities strongly suggest that regular IRGC ground forces have integrated with the international Shiite brigades commanded by Soleimani.   

The IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency published on Feb. 3 a revealing radio communication between pro-government forces in the besieged towns and the advancing units that aided them. Two men are heard having an exchange about battlefield conditions. Then the fighter on the advancing side switchedfrom his not-fully-Syrian Arabic accent to fluent Farsi. The unidentified man addressed his “brothers and sister in Nubl and Zahra,” instructing them “to be ready.” He proclaimed, “We are coming! We are very close! Have tea ready! Victory is ours with blessings upon the Prophet and his Household!” The message was clear: although this was the liberation of Syrian towns held by Syrian rebels, the glory was owed to the IRGC. A photo posted on social media similarly shows the Islamic Republic of Iran’s flag waving in Nubl.

Top Iranian leaders and IRGC commanders have tried to explain to the Iranian public the necessity of their presence in Syria. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei met with several families who lost their fathers, sons, and brothers in the recent offensive, telling them that this fight keeps Iran’s enemies far from the country’s borders.  IRGC chief commander Mohammad Ali Jafari echoed this view on Feb. 11 when he addressed forces mourning the deaths of Brigadier General Mohsen Ghajarian and five other fighters on the anniversary of the 1979 Revolution. IRGC Deputy Commander Brigadier General Hossein Salamigave a live televised interview on Feb. 7 to explain the recent fatalities to the broader Iranian public. He likewise said the IRGC’s involvement keeps the fight away from Iran’s borders. Salami boasted that the recent victories “broke the backs” of rebels in Aleppo and “change political calculations in the Syrian government’s favor.”

Pro-Assad forces, including the IRGC and Soleimani’s international Shiite brigades, are continuing to advance with Russian air support and encircle Aleppo. This would give the Syrian regime an advantagein any negotiations, while also putting significant pressure on the mixed opposition in northern Syria. Assad and his allies want to dictate the terms of any talks, setting demands that the rebels may not be able to accept. If the insurgents reject the terms offered, then pro-Assad forces could press harder, attempting to use conditions on the ground to their favor. The battle for Aleppo province does not bode well for the prospect of a political settlement. 

Amir Toumaj and Max Peck are research analysts at Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Follow them on Twitter @AmirToumaj and @Maxwell_Peck

 

[Pseudonyme]

2 hours ago, Boule75 said:

Ils ont cru Bachar el-Assad : "tous terroristes !".

Bachar n'a pas incriminé les kurdes depuis le début de cette affaire, les quelques très rares escarmouches entre SAA et Kurdes étaient plus le fruit de la confusion d'une guerre civile qu'autre chose.

Le gouvernement Turc est seul responsable de ces actes ouvertement bellicistes et irresponsables.

 

[Conan le Barbare]

Il y a 1 heure, Ciders a dit :

Du côté des gentils voyons !

"Les méchants y sont bêtes. Y croient que c'est nous les méchants !!"

 

par contre je suis réellement curieux de savoir jusqu'où les Russes sont prêts à aller...

Modifié le 13 février 2016 par Conan le Barbare

[g4lly]

Y a comme une ambiance pourrie chez les rebelles ... je sais pas si c'est un fake ou pas ... mais c'est folklo sur la "CiBi"

 

Il semble que les loyalistes est encore bien avancé dans le désert a l'est d'Itriyah. Sur les vidéo on y voit pas mal de BTR-80 probablement récemment livrés par les russes.

http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-reaches-important-crossroad-in-southern-raqqa/

Le tete de pont de cette force mécanisée serait a 35km de la base aérienne Al-Tabqa.

 

[alexWF]

2 AN 124 ont été vu sur flight radar en direction de Lattaquié en l'espace de 1h30. Peut être de nouvelles batteries de S400 ...

[Zalmox]

Et un autre navire de débarquement russe a traversé le Bosphore vers la Syrie, le Yamal, un Ropucha-I class

https://mobile.twitter.com/maytham956/status/698510520383467521

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ropucha-class_landing_ship

 

Modifié le 13 février 2016 par Zalmox

[g4lly]

23 minutes ago, Conan le Barbare said:

par contre je suis réellement curieux de savoir jusqu'où les Russes sont prêts à aller...

Jusqu'a Berlin !    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

 

=---

[2020]

http://fr.sputniknews.com/defense/20160213/1021720633/syrie-russie-kalibr-mediterranee.html

Le Nombre de navires russes en méditerranée  va passer de 10 a 20 ...!

[Barristan-Selmy]

Syrian Rebels Shift Tactics as Setbacks Mount

Citation

Rebels increasingly turn to guerrilla tactics as regime forces gain battlefield advantage

BEIRUT—Rebels fighting to overthrow Syrian President Bashar al-Assad say their survival depends on changing tactics and shifting to guerrilla warfare, as their territorial losses to the regime and its Russian and Iranian allies mount.

After a string of recent defeats in northern and southern Syria and along the country’s Mediterranean coast, the vastly outgunned rebels say they can no longer aim to seize and control territory. They say they have already started turning to guerrilla tactics such as assassinations, ambushes and hit-and-run attacks in the battle for the northern city of Aleppo.

Forced to withdraw last week from the village of Ratyan in Aleppo province, 10 rebel fighters stayed behind, armed with AK-47s and PKC machine guns, according to Abdulfatah al-Hussein, a member of the rebel group Jaish al-Mujahideen. They hid for hours in shallow trenches, he said.

Later, Iranian, Afghan and Iraqi fighters battling on behalf of the Assad regime, as well as those from the Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah, entered Ratyan. The rebels opened fire and killed dozens of them, Mr. Hussein said. After carrying out sniper attacks against the pro-regime fighters, the rebels slipped away hours later to a nearby village under opposition control. “We won’t surrender,” he said.

Both Islamist and non-Islamist rebel groups say their Western, Arab and Turkish allies haven’t supplied them with the increased military aid they need to defend themselves against stepped-up attacks from Russian warplanes and the influx of Shiite Muslim foreign fighters who have come to the aid of Mr. Assad and his regime.

“The rebels now have a responsibility to change the way they fight,” said Mustafa Amin, a political leader of the Levant Front, which has received American weapons and is one of the largest rebel alliances in Aleppo. “If we don’t get support from our allies in a major way, it will need to transform into guerrilla warfare.”

Jennifer Cafarella, a research fellow at the Institute for the Study of War, said Syria’s conflict is at a turning point. “The war is entering a new phase, thanks to the Russian air campaign and Iranian ground presence,” she said. “It is a major setback for the opposition.”

Since the early days of the armed uprising in 2011, territorial control has been a goal of opposition fighters. They seized neighborhoods, villages and towns and established local administration to demonstrate, in part, that there was a viable alternative to Mr. Assad’s rule.

In recent years, these rebel-controlled areas have come under increasingly heavy attack from rockets, barrel bombs and Scud missiles. But Russia’s intervention in the war has posed the biggest challenge yet.

After Moscow launched its air campaign in late September, rebels at first were able to hold their ground along numerous front lines with the help of antitank missiles, many of them American-made.

But rebels say there has been a surge of Russian airstrikes in recent weeks. Russian warplanes have carried out hundreds of strikes on small towns and villages and forced opposition fighters to flee, which in turn has enabled pro-regime ground forces to advance with little resistance.

A military commander of the rebel group First Regiment in Aleppo who goes by the nickname Abu Mahmood said the war against the Assad regime had shifted. “Open war is no longer in our interest after the Russian intervention,” Mr. Mahmood said. “Now we will depend on targeted attacks and ambushes.”

Such unconventional tactics will be adopted across Syria “if this Russian offensive continues with this level of brutality and the world community continues to let us down,” he said.

For the rebels, guerrilla warfare isn’t new. Foregoing any attempt to try to wrest control of neighborhoods in the heart of Damascus, rebels have carried out targeted bombings and assassinations against government and military buildings in the heavily fortified capital, keeping the city on edge.

In the central city of Homs, rebels resorted to car bombings after they were forced to withdraw in 2014 from Homs’s Old City following a long siege by government forces.

Facing daily pummeling by barrel bombs, they took the battle underground in Aleppo, tunneling under government buildings and bringing them down with bombs planted in their foundations.

They now hope such guerrilla tactics will enable them at a minimum to weaken the regime in the countryside outside Aleppo, where they have had more success in capturing and controlling towns and villages, analysts say.

Whether they will ensure the survival of an armed opposition that can still pose a threat to the Assad regime is uncertain.

According to Ms. Cafarella, the rebels still control almost all of Idlib province, which borders Aleppo province. They also still hold sway over about half of Daraa province in the south, along the Jordanian border, she said.

The rebels may eventually be forced, however, to abandon territory even in those areas to maintain some fighting capacity. In Daraa, for instance, opposition fighters armed only with rifles and antitank weapons are no match for the Russian and regime warplanes.

Maj. Issam Reyes, spokesman for the rebel Southern Front which gets military aid from U.S. and Arab states, said the armed opposition has been too dependent on controlling towns and villages and should have opted for more targeted attacks from the start of the uprising.

“The rebel factions aren’t a proper army and their organization isn’t that of armies,” he said. “They can’t hold land and fight like an army.”

Controlling territory requires advanced weapons, better discipline and trained fighters, he said. Those handicaps—together with constant infighting, irregular foreign military aid and ranks dominated by civilians, not defected government soldiers—have hampered the rebel effort.

While guerrilla tactics may enable the armed opposition to survive, prolonging the insurgency at any cost also risks losing support for the opposition from both inside and outside the country.

“There are many rebels who don’t want to stop fighting they don’t want to lose the war, but what’s the goal of doing that?” said Aron Lund, editor of Syria in Crisis published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“If they want support from others, which they will need, they would presumably have to sell guerrilla resistance as a useful strategy,” he said. “It would have to be seen as a way to rekindle the uprising, recapture territory, slowly strangle the Assad regime, keep it away from certain areas—something.”

http://www.wsj.com/articles/syrian-rebels-shift-tactics-as-setbacks-mount-1455210551
 

[alexWF]

L'artillerie turque aurait aussi pris pour cible l'armée Syrienne dans la région de Lattaquié

 

[RugbyGoth]

Question bête, il y a combien d'ambassadeurs turques qui ont été priés de venir s'expliquer à travers le monde suite à ces agressions?

Il me semble que le YPG compte dans les alliés de la coalition, non?

 

[Shorr kan]

La Turquie est un membre encore plus prééminent de cette coalition que l'YPG. 

En quelque sorte, ils ont "priorité". Ainsi le veux la géopolitique. 

[MoX]

Les Séouds et leurs acolytes ne feraient-ils pas un petit flirt avec la ligne rouge pour peser sur les négociations à venir ?

 

[Shorr kan]

Si c'est ça, quelque chose me dit qu'ils se foutent le doigt dans l’œil jusqu'au fondement....

[2020]

il y a 5 minutes, MoX a dit :

Les Séouds et leurs acolytes ne feraient-ils pas un petit flirt avec la ligne rouge pour peser sur les négociations à venir ?

 

Ou n esperent ils pas que les sSyriens ou l ypk ne repliquent ? ...

[Chachnaq]

il y a 1 minute, 2020 a dit :

Ou n esperent ils pas que les sSyriens ou l ypk ne repliquent ? ...

Peut être c'est ce qu'ils cherchent précisément, ils les provoquent et eux réagissent pour leur donner l'occasion de répliquer de manière plus démesurée.

[Arnaud D.]

Le Ministre de la défense du Qatar lors de sa visite au détachement de la force aérienne du Qatar déployée à Incirlik AB :

Les US exhortent la Turquie à mettre fin aux tirs d'artillerie sur les Kurdes et les forces du régime Syrien.

Modifié le 13 février 2016 par Arnaud D.

[Zalmox]

il y a 25 minutes, Arnaud D. a dit :

Les US exhortent la Turquie à mettre fin aux tirs d'artillerie sur les Kurdes et les forces du régime Syrien.

Par quel biais ?

[collectionneur]

Petite question, quel F-15 les saoudiens ont ils déployé en Turquie, les -C ou/et les -E ? 

[Arnaud D.]

à l’instant, Zalmox a dit :

Par quel biais ?

L'info vient de tomber il y a peu ... Ils ont également exhorté le YPG de ne pas profiter d'une situation confuse en saisissant un nouveau territoire dans N d'Alep ...

[Barristan-Selmy]

Un graphique simple si vous commencez a vous y perdre :

De : https://twitter.com/Charles_Lister

[predateur]

La Turquie, à annoncer avoir répliqué à des tires syriennes.