PARIKRAMA Story

[Picdelamirand-oil]

il y a 45 minutes, Boule75 a dit :

Y a-t-il une bonne âme pour éclairer la signification de stable / unstable dans les deux phrases ci-dessus ?

J'interprète les step 1 / step N comme étant des itérations successives du moteur : Safran est-il intervenu sur le premier cité ou seulement à partir du step 1 et, corollaire, doit-on comprendre que la stabilité de la poussée est l'un aspect complexe à atteindre dans le domaine des réacteurs, voire très spécifiquement pour un réacteur à flux variable ?

Merci pour vos lumières !

Je ne pense pas que quelqu'un d'autre que SAFRAN puisse installer le cœur du M-88 dans le Kaveri. Donc pour moi il l'ont installé et fait l'essais. Résultat ils ont obtenu dans des conditions idéales la poussée espérée, maintenant il faut faire la mise au point pour que ce soit obtenu plus facilement.

[tipi]

Bon ben s'ils en sont à débattre de l'inclusion du Kaveri dans le F16 ou le Gripen, ça veut dire que ce programme Single Engine n'est pas près de déboucher :-)

En revanche sur le Rafale c'est un peu étrange, si je comprends bien c'est maintenant le MoD qui veut un achat sur étagères et l'Indian Navy qui veut produire sur place... Etonnant j'avais intialement compris que c'était plutôt l'inverse...

[Picdelamirand-oil]

il y a 12 minutes, tipi a dit :

Bon ben s'ils en sont à débattre de l'inclusion du Kaveri dans le F16 ou le Gripen, ça veut dire que ce programme Single Engine n'est pas près de déboucher :-)

En revanche sur le Rafale c'est un peu étrange, si je comprends bien c'est maintenant le MoD qui veut un achat sur étagères et l'Indian Navy qui veut produire sur place... Etonnant j'avais intialement compris que c'était plutôt l'inverse...

Je crois que le MOD ne veut pas acheter beaucoup de Rafale. Et si le Rafale arrive à être produit en Inde, avec les faveurs qu'il a auprès de l'IAF et de l'IN, il sera forcément produit en grande quantité. Ce qui va rogner la quantité possible de SE surtout avec les effets du temps Indiens et la réluctance des US à accepter les conditions Indiennes. Et si le SE ne se fait pas.... adieu l'accord stratégique avec les US!!!

[ARPA]

il y a 31 minutes, Picdelamirand-oil a dit :

Je crois que le MOD ne veut pas acheter beaucoup de Rafale. Et si le Rafale arrive à être produit en Inde, avec les faveurs qu'il a auprès de l'IAF et de l'IN, il sera forcément produit en grande quantité. Ce qui va rogner la quantité possible de SE surtout avec les effets du temps Indiens et la réluctance des US à accepter les conditions Indiennes. Et si le SE ne se fait pas.... adieu l'accord stratégique avec les US!!!

Si Dassault arrive à construire une usine en Inde comme celle qui se trouve en France, il pourra faire pression sur le gouvernement indien et "imposer" une production annuelle de 10 à 40 avions jusqu'à ce que l'avion soit "obsolète".

Si on compte sur 30 ans de vie du Rafale, on est sur d'équiper au minimum 30% de la flotte indienne.

[Patrick]

il y a une heure, Picdelamirand-oil a dit :

Je crois que le MOD ne veut pas acheter beaucoup de Rafale.

Auront-ils seulement le choix ? Il va falloir du temps à DRAL pour monter en puissance, et les besoins seront énormes à l'horizon 2020.

[herciv]

Parikrama dixit (small snippet)

The unstable nature is talked in two places -

low speed

Flameout.

There is a increased NVH detected at low speed resulting in requirement of more parts inspection and possibly replacements.

The Flamout talked about 3 point check of sufficient Fuel and oxygen intake for combustion, compressor zone issues and mechanical design or material failure. On this it ahs been narrowed down to Compressor zone issues.

Bcz of this the Engine bench results is deemed unstable and undergoing refinements to solve the issues and attain stable thrusts under all standard conditions.

The Step 1 and 2 pertains to two thrust categories being planned for 65/98 and 72/110. The targeted result is 72/110 Kn which is basically planned for future AMCA program. The cross usage is envisioned for the F16 engine of F100 family. Thats the eventual target.

In the interim the Step 1 is the stable 65/98 Kn thrust family of engines to power the domestic LCA Mk1A. In case the LCA MKXX family is further upgraded, an option of heavier engine is always there via Step 2 72/110 Kn Engine.

Now why these 2 steps?
The original plan of 65/98 Kn and increase thrust requirement made Indian researchers see a decrease in engine life, increased maintenance and limitation of time needed to perfect the same. The 72/110 engine simulation seems to put the engine to be better than Chinese "RD33 based" Engine but not as good as Russian engines presently. This simulation was done with teh aid of Safran who deemed it similar to M88-3 with requirement of better air intake and limited life and increased maintenance. It is for the same reason, this engine needs further time and a better new standard similar to ECO in order to make it better than Russian Engines and move it closer to M88-4E kind of stable regime.

In short, Step 1 can be attainable within a much shorter time frame and Step 2 in build on that in a medium time frame.

[Picdelamirand-oil]

 

planned vs reality...

French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to India deferred till next year

Indian and French officials have decided to reschedule the visit till early 2018, sources said. Fresh dates are being explored in February 2018.

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/french-president-emmanuel-macrons-visit-to-india-deferred-till-next-year-4928940/

Ahhh! le temps Indien.

Modifié le 10 novembre 2017 par Picdelamirand-oil

[Picdelamirand-oil]

Parikrama suite

The initial agreement pertained to F16 with proper technological absorption over TASL chain but when USA folks hard pressed PMO officials , the deal started getting skewered. First the tech absorption rate and scope was reduced, the entities were asked to have 74% stake by OEMs from USA and finally it was said they want a 100% control over such entities as well.. Even to the extent that certain relaxations were "u turned" and said to be now under Senate Approval only.

It was at this point Doval changed tactics with French side stepping up for the LCA Ecosystem and support for operationalising the LCA, all present day imported systems of LCA offered from Dassault chain, DRAL making LRUs and components and even redesigning a part of landing gear for more optimized under carriage load out.

But PMO folks have moved ahead a lot with USA India relationship from security perspective. Doval was in favor of USA security outsourcing policy with a carrot of F-35 procurement but the U turns have made him look at French more closely. It is for the same reason Tillerson went frustrated back bcz NSA doval had not given his consent to PM Modi for the letter of endorsement.

One thing is clear, with thsi India Today news report, PMO/MOD achieved what they wanted and IAF has relented on SE.. Surely IAF had got their pound of flesh.. and that means 36 more Rafales is done and over with and focus will shift to Macron visit where MII talks on further batches will be key with French involvement in other defence programs.

Et encore

Its doing changes but first the internals and avionics need re ordering and re orientation. There are wastage space which has been identified but solutions presently used are not helping in reorienting these sub systems and freeing up the spaces for other uses like additional fuel onboard. Due to this, there is a excess weight in segments which are up for changes as well.

All this cant happen overnight and time factor plays the devil's hand.. Give Tejas project some time and you should get fine birds.. But that will need some crucial thinking and changes like first accepting teh internal re orientation and procurement has to be changed from present vendors and increasing the outsourcing aka production of LRUs and components to some other entitties. many years ago it was L&T who wanted to make a private line for LCA, but turf wars resulted HAL to push L&T out.. there is a scope via DRAL and whole present systems imported to be shifted to only French ones (use M2k and Rafale tech) and redesign the supply chain. such optimization can be done within 2-3 years but till that time we have to have patience with Tejas progress.

SE procurement wont help it in this regard.. and French wont give access to LCA ecosystem support without being a partner and user to Dassault DRAL program for Rafales..

[Boule75]

@Picdelamirand-oil : de quoi faire plusieurs saisons d'un série hebdomadaire cette affaire... La reconversion de Parikrama est toute trouvée !

Modifié le 10 novembre 2017 par Boule75

[Picdelamirand-oil]

It wont benefit much... the idea is to have this




posted it here http://indiandefence.com/threads/ia...-doors-in-new-delhi.62642/page-15#post-598097

We wanted to have 2 private sector entities which can become our own LM and Boeing. We created DRAL via offsets and hoped that SPM will create the other one.. This will free up our present major player HAL who will move up the ladder in the pyramid and use the benefits derived from ecosystems established via this path.

Unfortunately the contours of F16 Block 70 at present levels wont help much in our MIC as sufficient work of the same will be kept back home in USA (USA First of trump) implying a limited real transfer and absorption and entities in India under more direct control of USA then India itself. 

There was a discussion where at one point of time the same LCA internal re organisation was suppose to be like F16 internal and this was the main basis of a limited order of 90 F-16s (they wanted 200 F-16s order) and 60 odd F-35s to go through the deal. The deal was further augmented by Trumps "priority order status" to Indian F-35s before the whole deal contours started changing and Americans pressing us hard for more orders of F16s, issues written a lot in this thread and POTUS going back on priority treatment.

Unfortunately Gripen E package also is inferior as of date when compared to whatever F-16 Block 70 has been offered with (contrary to popular belief thats its better). Most folks dont know for example that Gripen E Cost per Flying Hours in present form pre IOC is expected to be above $9k and a planned reduction of 50% is envisioned upto FOC to bring it down to $6K. And all such claims in the papers presented to MOD remains unsubstantiated as the program is in way too early stage.

To be honest DRAl is recognized as a special factory under Dassault chain and Dassault plans to use it irrespective of Indian orders or not to make parts and bring down cost of Rafale. and Falcon. The same wont hold true for TASL at the present from of the deal. 

Then again Security outsourcing to USA and focus on Economical revival is the main agenda. so we have to be happy with Engineers working in a AC environment doing some part of assembling.. with access to certain portions being restricted and biometrics being a popular item .... something like that only max for our MIC...

http://indiandefence.com/threads/iaf-chronicles-a-side-view-of-whats-going-on-behind-the-closed-doors-in-new-delhi.62642/page-43#post-605389

Modifié le 10 novembre 2017 par Picdelamirand-oil

[jojo (lo savoyârd)]

Il y a de quoi être relativement perplexe au lire de tout ce-ci ...

[prof.566]

Non à ce moment là tu as une scène de danse collective à Bollywood...

[gargouille]

Ce passage serait censuré si je le soumettais à Radio-pro-gripen (http://psk.blog.24heures.ch/)

Unfortunately Gripen E package also is inferior as of date when compared to whatever F-16 Block 70 has been offered with (contrary to popular belief thats its better). Most folks dont know for example that Gripen E Cost per Flying Hours in present form pre IOC is expected to be above $9k and a planned reduction of 50% is envisioned upto FOC to bring it down to $6K. And all such claims in the papers presented to MOD remains unsubstantiated as the program is in way too early stage.

 

J'ai du mal à suivre mais d’après plusieurs messages :

Les US ne donne pas tant d'offsets,  ni du véritable MII et le F16 ne convient pas vraiment niveau perf.

Le Gripen E ou version précédente ne sont pas des plus performants ni économiques et SAAB ne peut pas faire du MII partiel avant 5 ans (son partenaire n'a pas d'experience dans le domaine) ni de vrais offsets.

C'est ça ?

Modifié le 10 novembre 2017 par gargouille

[Picdelamirand-oil]

il y a 21 minutes, gargouille a dit :

Ce passage serait censuré si e le soumettait à Radio-pro-gripen (http://psk.blog.24heures.ch/)

Unfortunately Gripen E package also is inferior as of date when compared to whatever F-16 Block 70 has been offered with (contrary to popular belief thats its better). Most folks dont know for example that Gripen E Cost per Flying Hours in present form pre IOC is expected to be above $9k and a planned reduction of 50% is envisioned upto FOC to bring it down to $6K. And all such claims in the papers presented to MOD remains unsubstantiated as the program is in way too early stage.

 

J'ai du mal à suivre mais d’après plusieurs messages :

Les US ne donne pas tant d'offsets,  ni du véritable MII et le F16 ne convient pas vraiment niveau perf.

Le Gripen E ou version précédente ne sont pas des plus performants ni économiques et SAAB ne peut pas faire du MII partiel avant 5 ans (son partenaire mas pas d'experience dans le domaine) ni de vrai offsets.

C'est ça ?

Oui l'information donnée est très riche, mais ça en fait partie. Ce qui me frappe aussi c'est qu'il n'y a pas une position du MOD et une position de l'IAF, mais plusieurs courants dans chaque camp. Ou alors leurs positions évoluent à la vitesse grand V.

Modifié le 10 novembre 2017 par Picdelamirand-oil

[gargouille]

il y a 5 minutes, Picdelamirand-oil a dit :

Oui l'information donnée est très riche, mais ça en fait partie. Ce qui me frappe aussi c'est qu'il n'y a pas une position du MOD et une position de l'IAF, mais plusieurs courants dans chaque camp. Ou alors leurs positions évoluent à la vitesse grand V.

Peut être bien.

[Bon Plan]

Le 09/11/2017 à 11:48, ARPA a dit :

Si Dassault arrive à construire une usine en Inde comme celle qui se trouve en France, il pourra faire pression sur le gouvernement indien et "imposer" une production annuelle de 10 à 40 avions jusqu'à ce que l'avion soit "obsolète".

Si on compte sur 30 ans de vie du Rafale, on est sur d'équiper au minimum 30% de la flotte indienne.

Tu es bien optimiste.

10 à 40 avions/an?   SI c'est 20 ca sera déjà beaucoup.

Il y a 13 heures, Picdelamirand-oil a dit :

 

planned vs reality...

French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to India deferred till next year

Indian and French officials have decided to reschedule the visit till early 2018, sources said. Fresh dates are being explored in February 2018.

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/french-president-emmanuel-macrons-visit-to-india-deferred-till-next-year-4928940/

Ahhh! le temps Indien.

C'est mieux de reporter un peu, pour peut être conclure, que la visite du capitaine de pédalo précédent président en janvier 2016 qui n'a abouti à rien.

[FATac]

Une visite de Président peut aussi avoir pour but de conclure bien d'autres affaires qu'une vente de Rafale ou même de matériel militaire ...

[Bon Plan]

Parikrama dans ses oeuvres :

 

Its now very clear that there are only 2 MII cases .. one of Rafale and other of impending F-16.. the third one of FGFA or Heavy category is more or less is clearly under frozen state with path for graceful pullout/curtailment.

What India Today published has made me finally say a little here..

There are a total of 13 files pertaining to deep upgrades and modifications proposed by French Dassault & co team for LCA Tejas Project.

Of course this is subject to GOI/MOD accepting it officially.

The chief among that is

• Aerodynamic Improvement
• Internal Re-Arrangement and Main System Architecture
• Avionics
• Radar
• EW
• Landing Gear re arrangement
• WVR and BVR Missiles
• Safranised Kaveri two phase plan
• Maintenance and Quality Parameters and a system to efficiently plug and play support monitoring
• Component and LRU for all imported systems /subsystems of LCA to be produced in DRAL
• Total Overhaul improvement with similar timelines as Mirage and Rafales for mission maintenance pre and post.
• Collaboration with India for a 5th gen project based on Rafale Evolution
• Other Services deals

French side has clearly said about MK1A and retrofitting Mk1 into new standard for all LCAs

All that comes at the cost of accepting one bitter pill - an SE choice of PMO - F-16s

Russia is getting compensated via a Missile Defence Deal (with TOT for a premium price) and a new N Sub lease deal which is far more costly than original $650Mn lease of Chakra 2

So essentially this washing the dirty linen and cornering opinions against IAF is wrong and possibly scandalous in nature.

The LCA Mk1A and MKXX program under French help is touted as a proper replacement of Mirages and is a cheaper LWF option for many Airforces which can act as a great export revenue potential for joint India and France Marketing and geo political deals. backed by Line of Credit, it helps expands spheres of influences quite rapidly.

Its time possibly for GOI to take a more concrete decision without using Services to become villains for agendas which basically are governments actually. And its perfectly all right to look at military deal for geo political reasons.. But a bit of transparency will serve a long way.

Of course HAL must pull up their socks as well bcz Private sector will get the share of Defence modernization and procurement Pie.. And with changing times, they must up the competition to remain competitive in the game and more importantly for relevancy purposes

http://indiandefence.com/threads/iaf-chronicles-a-side-view-of-whats-going-on-behind-the-closed-doors-in-new-delhi.62642/page-45#post-605540

[Picdelamirand-oil]

Une synthèse

Thats not true... IAF never supported SE deal over LCA.. IAF had asked for Rafale and French association to make LCA a grand success..
It was always PMO who wanted a USA political deal..

TBH PMO wanted both F16s and F-18s..F-18s Rhino and SH for IAF and IN was proposed.. @Hellfire spoke about Boeing deal almost 1.5 years back to few of us and it was IAF who resisted this very hard.. IN supported IAF on this as well...

It was known for sometime (last few months) that the compromise between MOD and IAF/IN would need IAF to accept Govt wishes for SE jets with endorsement and GOI in turn accepting want of Rafales.

Luckily Boeing package over time of these negotiations were way too inferior (superiority complex perhaps) and Rafale deal further evolved for LCA and DRAL factory setup date being finalised.. these events helped IAF and IN to firm up its stand and GOI also forwarding the TE deal to priority status.. Of course USA helped it as well with their U turns making it easier for Services to negotiate hard.

The article today and iAF wordings even if it remains unconfirmed is basically showing F16 being better and building the opinion for wider acceptance.. and in the process painting IAF as villains.. in reality, its a turf war for fighters of their own choices between gov and services..

Modifié le 10 novembre 2017 par Picdelamirand-oil

[herciv]

Il est déchainé aujourd'hui : 

A PROPOSE DES CHANCES DU GRIPEN :

Less than 5-10% chance .. its there for negotiations as of now and is not much pursued.. It wont be pushed hard unless negotiations with US side collapses. Moreover POTUS is more open to supporting F-16s via US MIC over Saab Gripen E

Sur la démarche suggéré par DA/DRAL/France/thales/safran

Yes they have..

HAL will remain main integrator for all LCA variants..

3 years for MK1A prototype with Safranised Kaveri and other modifications for starting the certification process..

The other option they gave is step by step implementation spreading over multiple blocks with each older block getting upgraded to latest standard under a modular approach.. this approach moves the Mk1A timeline to begin testing to within 2 years but the down side is all the capability addition fructify over time in different blocks..

It's now in government decision to chose which of these options they wish to make if they plan to go ahead with the French options for LCA.

Sur la suite du SE :(c'est quoi SPM ??)

Whether we may agree or not.. there are two entity created via two different pathways .. one via offsets and one via SPM.. who will prove superior only time will tell..

The fact remains the pyramid what I posted back is all what GOI desires .. and it does not wish only one private behemoth to compete with one legacy DPSU. For them the idea is clearly an Indian version of LM and Boeing..

Whether that vision translates to reality or not depends on multiple things.. an example being if Rafale is curtailed at just 72 , then DRAL does NT have a future role at all in this.. similarly if SPM process is so tedious and time consuming that SE deal takes a decade to frucitfy, it again pushes TASL out of the game as well.

Un petit coup de défense du Rafale et de DRAL :

Is Tata doing more than 30% work by value for those deals?

If No then why DRAL is inferior to Tata?

Please compare the deal sizes of Apaches and Chinooks.. with Rafale.. inspite of this being an apple to orange comparision..

Fuselage manufacturing is big and component is not? I believe parts by economic value showcases far more important commitment..

Let SE deal mature.. we all will know what company irrespective of Tata or DRAL makes what here by value..

As of now it's a wrong analogy simply bcz one entity is standing and doing work.. the other only ground breaking ceremony is just done..

We will know what Tata will do or even Adani will in India when they win the SE tender..

[herciv]

Il y a 2 heures, FATac a dit :

Une visite de Président peut aussi avoir pour but de conclure bien d'autres affaires qu'une vente de Rafale ou même de matériel militaire ...

SI j'ai bien suivi les posts de parikrama c'est même très probable. Il y a des très nombreux ToT dans la balance.

[Teenytoon]

Mais au final il vont prendre du Tejas ET du F16 ? 

Ca va pas faire double emploi ?

[Brian McNewbie]

@Picdelamirand-oil Désolé pour la question très naïve au milieu de toute cette matière, mais :

Quand il dit que Dassault voit surtout dans le partenariat avec DRAL une solution pour proposer des Rafale et Falcon moins cher, l'idée a priori pour Dassault à moyen terme c'est quoi, proposer deux prix quand ils répondent à un appel d'offre, un Made in France et un Made in India ? Faire fabriquer en Inde tous les appareils destinés à l'export ? Inclure des pièces fabriquées en Inde dans tous leurs appareils ? Le client se voit proposé la carte du restaurant, et choisit en fonction de la profondeur du porte-monnaie et de sa confiance dans la qualité du Made in India, du genre "je prendrai le morceau X en France et Y en Inde" ?

 

[mgtstrategy]

52 minutes ago, Brian McNewbie said:

@Picdelamirand-oil Désolé pour la question très naïve au milieu de toute cette matière, mais :

Quand il dit que Dassault voit surtout dans le partenariat avec DRAL une solution pour proposer des Rafale et Falcon moins cher, l'idée a priori pour Dassault à moyen terme c'est quoi, proposer deux prix quand ils répondent à un appel d'offre, un Made in France et un Made in India ? Faire fabriquer en Inde tous les appareils destinés à l'export ? Inclure des pièces fabriquées en Inde dans tous leurs appareils ? Le client se voit proposé la carte du restaurant, et choisit en fonction de la profondeur du porte-monnaie et de sa confiance dans la qualité du Made in India, du genre "je prendrai le morceau X en France et Y en Inde" ?

 

Le client d'un falcon achete deja un avion made in usa, made in merignac, made in.... c'est un assemblage de piece, c'est pas de la haute couture 100% francaise. Idem avec ta bmw, tout n'est pas bavarois... Donc si ton Falcon 2000 coute 15% moins cher à perf egale et à qualité egale à la competition, pourquoi se priver? Meme les ultra riches regardent à la dépense et loin s'en faut...

[Picdelamirand-oil]

Il y a 8 heures, Teenytoon a dit :

Mais au final il vont prendre du Tejas ET du F16 ? 

Ca va pas faire double emploi ?

Non le Tejas a les pattes beaucoup plus courtes que le F-16. Si c'était pas Indien pour les Indiens, personne n'en voudrait.

Modifié le 11 novembre 2017 par Picdelamirand-oil