30th September has come and its time for an updated buzz in the corridors of power.
Lot of focus has been on SE so will start with the other competitor in SE Jet fighter plan Gripen E Update
Last Saab news in the main SE thread was here http://indiandefence.com/threads/f1...-and-possibilities.56222/page-256#post-595296
As of today Gripen E is in 2nd position but its an open option.
The deal structure and the whole program offered inclusive of all direct technology, licencing and integration is more complicated and highly expensive
IAF evaluation based on responses in MMRCA and as of new documents submitted by Saab shows Gripen E/F has drawbacks with engine power to weight in straight line.
The second problem is Gripen E fully eating out the program of LCA. Contrary to the belief that Gripen E will might be renamed as LCA Mk2 or position itself as Mk2, its threat is actually directly to MK1A.
There were two papers about Gripen internally and if Gripen comes the Tejas Mk1/Mk1A "All" orders will be certainly reduced.
The reduction will be based on non performance of HAL - Inability to deliver the aircraft on time and unable to meet certain quality parameters+ performance specifications.
There is a report submitted from HAL as well which has opposed Gripen E in similar language and has expressed great concern for LCA Mk1/Mk1A program curtailment scope.
Tech Integration from 5th Gen platform
To a direct query of a possibility of integration of F35 sub systems into Gripen, James Mattis has formally declined any chances.
In a candid view, he expresses strong reservation against continuing USA support for Gripen for long time and has said if a threat comes to US MIC and figher ecosystem, preferential treatment will be given to American companies only.
There is another challenge of Saab offer comprising of future integration of systems bought off teh shelf which are basically part of 5th gen systems research.
Its on paper as of now and would take a long time (at least a decade plus) before any successful integration and matured 5th gen tech from 3rd party system will be available for Gripen
Integration of Indian Engine - the Safranised Kaveri option
The SE fighter has a clear cut one agenda point - integration of Safransied Kaveri and its variants
Beyond a particular number, there is a clear understanding that Safranised Kaveri will be the preferred option for the Fighter
In MLU, the more powerful version of Safranised Kaveri will be used to upgrade the planes further.
Dimensions will remain same with only metallurgy and components/ compression/ stages change. Teh core is M88 core only for all these engines
The aim is to increase Dry thrust to 6x-7x-8x and AB to 9x-10x-11x-12x
Emphasis is on Dry thrust of course and a regime for max SFC around 0.8M-1.2M
The chief challenge here is
Gripen E will need re designing for the engine.
F16 needs no such changes
LCA Mk1A/Mk1X also no changes
Rafale (all variants) also no changes
This is a big let down for Saab and Gripen E and internal studies have revealed any such fitment comes at a much higher cost, and re certification much beyond just engine and flight performance and goes deeper into the airframe and entire EW + systems
Talks were still held for the fitment and a solution has already been proposed and for all intensive purposes it would be easier to take out the engine in all other crafts mentioned above as per the internal study than in Gripen E.
Chances of Gripen -
Tough chance inspite of Gripen E being far more newer aircraft program
In terms of assessment it has reached almost 60-65% of its potential as part of program development.
In terms of maturity versus F16 which is almost 100% of program development and integrating further newer tech from F-35, the assessment of overall proposal of Saab is weaker as detailed above.
Especially the Engine thing is a big let down inspite of being talked about many times on this by indian officials
Meteor integration and 5 meteor config is a big hit among the IAF people who already are over the moon with Meteors in Rafales (max 4 as of now but study underway to make it 6 under a deep upgrade proposed later in F4/4.2 - not sure if the cost is practical as it will involve heavy modifications).
Commonality of Meteor and ability to take out HV targets right from FW bases and taking out AWACS /AARs /Force Multipliers without extra mobilization is a big advantage.
There is another reason for Gripen E to be still in race as explained below in threats to F16 and its regarding software codes
F16 and USA
The points have been made before in the main thread
AIM 120D and a new variant is proposed
All the top missiles which can go in F35 will be available.
A new program under Raytheon and analogous to Meteor is also proposed as Future AMRAAM.
Its a necessity as detailed above in case of Meteor integration in F35 as well as in Gripen E
In A2G - AGM-65 Maverick/laser Maverick, AGM 142B - HaveLite, AGM-88 HARM is offered.
IN A2A- Iris-T, AIM 7F/M Sparrow, AIM 120 A/B/C/D AMRAAM, AIM 9 N/P/ L/ M/ S/ XSidewinder are proposed.
The A2G General weapons - 500lb and 2000lb bombs and Mk82,83,84 and GBU - 15/22/24/27/32/31/38 - JDAM is also on offer.
In Decoys - MALD and towed Decoy is offered
In ECM - ALQ 131 ECM Pod/ ALQ-211 AIDEWS POD and ALQ 119/184 ECM POD is there.
In Targeting systems - Sniper, Litening, HARM targeting system R7 and Integrated FLIR targeting systems is offered.
CFT in wings and 1100L center tank + 1400L under wing tank+ 2200L under wing tank options are there.
JHMCS 2 is offerred as well with GPS integration to local Indian system.
Threat to F16 / American political deal
USA- India relation is on upswing post Bush and Obama and now mainly due to Trump who is taking it forward with a greater emphasis on powering up India Militarily for the USA-India-Israel-Japan-Australia axis creation.
But there are certain deals where we dont see eye to eye like Climate Agreement deal
Also there are Information warfare and hacking issues in USA planes which have been bought by some of the countries who sabotaged and changed teh source codes to modify and better certain specs
Sub system hacks for F16 are still present and are mostly denied by USA people but they are there only very few can review it.
India has a powerful software community so that might be uncovered and reversed any threat and potential damage
But USA wants a "user agreement" to be agreed on before any MII absolving of any such damage caused which is why Gripen E is not already off the table.
There is also a sizable cost of sharing F16 line+ ecosystem completely to India and thats going to play a decisive role with overall costs budgeting.
FGFA status
As mentioned before there has been numerous points pointed by LM and Boeing about PAKFA program.
FGFA is stuck because the USA has shown several problems in stealth and engine output with framework issues for higher mach speed.
Right now its being noted as very low probability to make such extensive changes under the price given by Russia
MOD believes the price offered to us is a bait when compared to other such projects R&D costs.
The report says cost to be too low and is certainly a ploy as in to bait and then ask for money again in future.
The report also says based on experience and post MKI deal, the tech share status is better in Russia than in USA but the linking of missile system and the the new Nuclear link which has come up is a problem
Rafale - More orders and the biggest threat to come - F35 after 2020 +
Main thread - http://indiandefence.com/threads/rafale-deal-signed.56201/
The next tranche of 36 is progressing well but it seems a strong idea is mooted by MOD to see if Dassault and France is serious about MII or not right at this stage.
There is a strong view of assembling these 36 at DRAL facility to showcase their real commitment for MII with standard localisation as possible under present deal offset conditions
If they accept such a proposition, it becomes easier for more orders with better localisation phase wise and is much easier than minimum 90 Rafales order.
The chief problem being TE MII is seen with Mig 35 as a competitor owing to the Russian offer in the hands of MOD
The chances of Rafale order curtailment is growing ground for one bigger reason -F35
The political side of the SE USA deal and with a possibility of buying out support from overall F35 consortium with the help of USA is gaining at a rapid pace.
With priority delivery from USA line for India its becoming extremely lucrative for New Delhi
2020 or afterwards is said to be when India can get a taste of the F35 if India chooses too and with certain pre conditions.
Thus team Dassault needs to move in pretty quick. The USA ally and F-35 scope has actually put the ball back in France's court. Will they move in and accept assembling 36 at DRAL India - thats the big question.
Overall comment-
GOI needs a showcase MII program which can show tangible results and can be used as poster presentation for 2019 elections.
As of now no program has a head start except DRAL implementing offsets but it more hinges on Safranised Kaveri and its success
A successful Kaveri powering Rafale to be made/assembled in India will go a long way forward compared to other SE deals.
A successful Kaveri powering LCA MK1A is also highly needed to safeguard our own MIC.
It would be wise to see which LRUs and parts/systems can be made in DRAL as part of HAL outsourcing if French side seriously wishes to help LCA program as LCA ecosystem is struggling to make enough numbers for 24/year production limit.
About USA jets well, there are lots of pros and cons..But a political deal is what PM NM is looking at and it makes sense to be on USA side versus Sweden side especially if the deal leads to the consortium of countries under F-35 program
As usual, the headaches are way too many for GOI. MOD and IAF. But modernization is highly needed and its not just LCA but many other places as well.
Like it or not we have to import for next decade. Even if we cry a lot and make noises , the fact remains present MIC is not in a stage to deliver whats needed.
Its better if we focus on getting the jets and upgrade our MIC ecosystem to support LCA program first and then think about other programs and say no completely to Imports.
http://indiandefence.com/threads/source-based-iaf-update-as-on-30-09-2017.65172/
